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miércoles, 27 de junio de 2012

EXPORTACIONES A PRUEBA DE CRISIS? / EXPORTS TO TESTS OF CRISIS?

ANALISIS DEL ECONOMISTA PAVEL ISA CONTRERAS
Santo Domingo, Republica Dominicana
Junio 27, 2012. Periodico “El Caribe” Pag. 21.

EXPORTACIONES A PRUEBAS DE CRISIS?

La queja es generalizada. El sector exportador dominicano acusa una falta de dinamismo que le impide generar las suficientes divisas como para dar el espacio necesario a la economía para crecer.  Los sustitutos temporales han sido inversión extrajera y el crédito externo, pero al menos este último se está agotando. Aunque hay experiencias exitosas de nuevas empresas exportadoras y productos exportados que han permitido compensar el golpe que significó el descalabro de las exportaciones de confecciones textiles de zonas francas, eso ha sido insuficiente.

Un análisis superficial de las cifras oficiales parecería sugerir lo contrario. Entre 2005 y 2010, las exportaciones totales de bienes crecieron a una tasa promedio anual de 2.5% y las de bienes y servicios (esto es incluyendo turismo) crecieron a un ritmo de 4% por año. Más aún, 2011 aparece en las cifras oficiales como un año extraordinario pues las exportaciones de bienes pasaron de unos US$6,600 millones a algo más de US$8,500 millones, para un crecimiento absoluto de casi US$2,000 millones, una expansión impresionante para un solo año. Si no fuera por las caídas que estas fuentes recogen para 2008 y 2009, parecerían cifras a pruebas de crisis.

Sin embargo, cuando se evalúan los datos con detenimiento, el panorama se torna diferente. Al considerarlo en términos reales, es decir, descontando la inflación, el valor real de las exportaciones fue un 4% menor en 2010 que en 2005, y creció a una tasa media anual de 0% en ese período. Más aún, en promedio cada dominicano y dominicana exportó un 10% menos en 2010 de lo que hizo en 2005. En ese período las exportaciones reales percápita crecieron a un ritmo de -1.3% por año. Estas cifras revelan que en términos agregados, el sector exportador ha retrocedido. Si considerásemos la participación dominicana en el comercio internacional de bienes, la cual cayó en un 25% entre 2005 y 2010, el juicio sería todavía más categórico.


Pero lo anterior es a partir de las cifras oficiales. En el ámbito de especialistas, es bien conocido el problema de la inconsistencia de las cifras de exportaciones entre instituciones oficiales. Los esfuerzos por lograr acuerdos en ese sentido no han rendido frutos. De allí que sea muy frecuente que se recurra a fuentes internacionales que utilizan datos de los países importadores combinados con datos de fuentes nacionales.

Qué dicen esas cifras? Confirman los datos de más arriba? Desafortunadamente, la respuesta no es sólo negativa, sino que arroja un panorama aún mas problemático. Por ejemplo, el International Trade Center (ITC), una agencia conjunta de la Organización Mundial del Comercio (OMC) y de la Organización de las Naciones Unidas (ONU) reporta que entre 2005 y 2010 el valor de las exportaciones nominales dominicanas fue, en promedio, un 10% menos al valor reportado por el Banco Central, y que, en contraste con las cifras gubernamentales, en ese período éste creció en -1.2%%. Más aún las cifras del ITC indican que entre 2007 y 2010, el valor exportado cayó en algo más de US$1,400 millones, a pesar de que en 2010 hubo una recuperación parcial, lo cual es también confirmado por las fuentes gubernamentales.

Por su parte, las Naciones Unidas, a través de una base de datos conjunta con la OMC y la Conferencia de Las Naciones Unidas para el Comercio y el Desarrollo (UNCTAD), reportó datos moderadamente diferentes pero con una tendencia similar a la indicada por las cifras del ITC, en el sentido de una reducción a mediano plazo aunque con una recuperación moderada en 2010.

En síntesis, contrario a percepciones superficiales, algunas esgrimidas por mi en otras entregas, las exportaciones no han resistido la crisis y su comportamiento está jugando un papel recesivo en la economía.

A la crisis internacional se suman los múltiples pesos muertos con que carga el apartado productivo como la energía, la calificación de la fuerza del trabajo y los problemas institucionales.

Por lo tanto, la respuesta de política debe ser en ambos frentes, buscando los nichos de mercado pero al mismo tiempo, invirtiendo en educación, haciendo cumplir las leyes, cobrando la energía y reduciendo su costo,  promoviendo el aprendizaje y la innovación, siendo más transparentes y atacando la corrupción y la impunidad.

EXPORTS TO TESTS OF CRISIS?

ANALYSIS OF THE DOMINICAN ECONOMIST PAVEL ISA CONTRERAS
Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
June 27, 2012

The complaint is widespread. The Dominican export sector shows a lack of dynamism that will not generate enough foreign exchange to give the necessary space to grow the economy. Substitutes are temporary foreign investment and foreign borrowing, but at least the latter is low. Although there are success stories of new exporters and exports which offset the blow that allowed meant the collapse of the textile apparel exports of free zones, that was insufficient.

A superficial analysis of official figures seem to suggest otherwise. Between 2005 and 2010, total exports of goods grew at an average annual rate of 2.5% and exports of goods and services ( including tourism) grew at a rate of 4% per year. Indeed, 2011 appears in the official figures as an extraordinary year as exports of goods increased from about U.S. $ 6.600 million to just over U.S. $ 8.500 billion, for an absolute increase of almost U.S. $ 2.000 billion, an impressive expansion for a single year. If not for these sources falls collected for 2008 and 2009, figures seem to crisis test.

However, when evaluating the data carefully, the picture becomes different. When viewed in real terms, discounting inflation, the real value of exports was 4% lower in 2010 than in 2005 and grew at an average annual rate of 0% in that period. Moreover, on average every Dominican and Dominican exported 10% less in 2010 than they did in 2005. During that period per capita real exports grew at a rate of -1.3% per year. These figures show that in aggregate terms, the export sector has declined. If we consider the Dominican participation in international trade of goods, which fell by 25% between 2005 and 2010, the trial would be even more blunt.

But this is from the official figures. Specialists in the field, is well known the problem of inconsistency in the figures of exports between institutions. Efforts to achieve such arrangements have not been successful. Hence, it is very frequent recourse to international sources using data from importing countries combined with data from national sources.

What these numbers say? Data confirm the above? Unfortunately, the answer is not only negative, but casts an even more problematic. For example, the International Trade Center (ITC), a joint agency of the World Trade Organization (OMC) and the United Nations Organization (ONU) reports that between 2005 and 2010 the nominal value of exports Dominican was in average 10% less than the value reported by the Central Bank, and in contrast to government figures, in that period it grew at -1.2%%. Moreover ITC figures indicate that between 2007 and 2010, the export value fell by just over U.S. $ 1.400 million, although in 2010 there was a partial recovery, which is also confirmed by government sources.
Meanwhile, United Nations, through a joint database with the OMC and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) reported moderately different data but with a similar trend to that indicated by the ITC figures in the sense of a reduction in the medium term although a moderate recovery in 2010.

In short, contrary to superficial perceptions, some put forward by my other deliveries, exports have not withstood the crisis and its behavior is playing a recession in the economy.
The international crisis are added multiple load dead weights that paragraph as energy production, qualification of the workforce and institutional problems.

Therefore, the policy response should be on both fronts, seeking niche markets at the same time, investing in education, enforcing laws, collecting energy and reducing their cost, promoting learning and innovation, being more transparent and attacking corruption and impunity.



viernes, 22 de junio de 2012

COFFEE EXPORTS TO REGION FELL BY 4.37%.


COFFEE EXPORTS TO REGION FELL BY 4.37%.

The combined exports of the group of nine coffee-producing countries of Latin America had a fall of 4.37% in the eight months of the current coffee harvest over the same period the previous one, reported yesterday a Guatemalan business source.


The National Coffee Association (Anacafe) of Guatemala said in a statement that their exports of Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Colombia and Peru totaled 17,976.288 bags of 60 kilos, from October 2011 and May. The figure is less than 4.37% over same period last y

jueves, 21 de junio de 2012

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TRADE WITH MALAYSIA HAS BEEN GROWING.

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TRADE WITH MALAYSIA HAS BEEN GROWING.

The country exports cocoa, Cigarettes and Pants.

Trade between the Dominican Republic and Malaysia in the last five years has totaled $ 200 millions of which U.S. $ 167 correspond to the Asian countries.

Malaysia's exports to the Dominican Republic amounted to US29 million, while imports were four million dollars last year.

Malaysia's main exports to the country are machinery and parts (20.7%), electrical and electronic products (20.5%), palm oil (19.4%) and rubber products (15.5%), while the country exports iron and products steel (58%), electrical and electronic products (13.7%) and machinery and parts (11.5%).
The country also exports to Malaysia, among other products, jeans, glasses, organic and conventional cocoa, footwear, handmade cigars and blood transfusion equipment.

Details were provided by Jonathan Rao, director for Latin America Malaysia Trade, at the seminar "Doing Business in Malaysia" organized by the Roundtable of the Countries of the Commonwealth in the Dominican Republic and sponsored by the Federation of Chamber of Commerce.

The president of the Round Table of the countries of the Commonwealth, Fernando Gonzalez Nicolas, stressed that Malaysia offers many opportunities for both countries to attract investment and to increase exports.

The seminar discussed Fernando Puig, executive director of the Federation of Chamber of Commerce and Acelis Angeles, technical deputy director of the Center for Export and Investment of the Dominican Republic.
Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
June13, 2012
Newspaper: HOY. Page. 3E. Economic

ARANCELES QUITAN PRIVILEGIO EMPRESAS / BUSINESS PRIVILEGE FEES REMOVED

Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
Periodico: EL DIA
21 de Junio del 2012

ARANCELES QUITAN PRIVILEGIO EMPRESAS.

Varias empresas que operan en las zonas francas del país, no pueden vender sus productos en el mercado local porque tienen que pagar mas impuestos que las industrias estadounidenses o centroamericanas.

Asi lo expreso ayer el señor Aquiles Bermudez, presidente de la Asociacion Dominicana de Zonas Francas ( ADOZONA), al advertir que esos paises que estan peleando por el mercado local, tienen prioridad porque no tienen que pagar esos impuestos en detrimento del empleado dominicano.

El Mercado local no compra porque tiene que pagar un 2.5% de impuesto sobre la renta, un 20% con el producto final y un 14% o 9% cuando es un producto intermedio, cuando los paises centroamericanos que estan peleando con nosotros por el mercado no lo estan pagando, señaló.

Dijo que si tienen que pagar un arancel, solo debería cobrarse sobre los productos que vengan de mercados donde la RD no tenga Tratados de libre Comercio. 

Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
Newspaper: THE DAY
June 21, 2012

BUSINESS PRIVILEGE FEES REMOVED.

Several companies operating in free zones of the country, can not sell their products in local market because they have to pay more taxes than Americans or Central American industries.

This was stated yesterday by Mr. Aquiles Bermudez, president of the Dominican Association of Free Zones (ADOZONA), warning that those countries that are fighting for the local market have priority because they have to pay those taxes to the detriment of the employee Dominican.

The local market does not buy because you have to pay a 2.5% income tax, 20% with the final product and 14% or 9% when it is an intermediate product, when the Central American countries that are fighting with us for the market are not paying, he said.

He said that if they have to pay a fee, should be charged only on products that come from markets in which the DR does not have Free Trade Agreements.


miércoles, 20 de junio de 2012

SHIPOWNERS CONCERNED ABOUT THE TRADE DEFICIT

Newspaper:  "Diario Libre"
June 15, 2012

Title: Shipowners concerned about the trade deficit.

Santo Domingo. The Shipping Association of the Dominican Republic (ANRD) expressed concern about the trade deficit in the Dominican Republic compared to other world markets, which in his view is reflected in the statistics of containers coming into the country of which only 25 percent (%) are shipped filled with export cargo.

Teddy Heinsen, ANRD president, said that of 450,000 TEUS (unit of measure equivalent to a closed box of 20) arrived full of imports in 2011, embarked a total of 350,000 teus gaps which puts us at a disadvantage with our competitors international.

Heinsen called for urgent measures to strengthen our export sector and domestic production, especially in regard to funding, capacity building, strengthening research and logistics.

The business leader called on the authorities that we look for short-term goal of turning the country into the big supplier of regional markets, European and American.

jueves, 14 de junio de 2012

THE DOMINICAN ECONOMY


THE DOMINICAN ECONOMY

The Dominican economy would grow just 4.4% this year, down from 2011, when it grew by 4.5% as reported by the World Bank (WB) which calls on developing countries to prepare for a long period of instability and economic relocating attention to strategies of medium-term development as they prepare for hard times.

The report Global Economic Prospects: Managing growth in a volatile world the World Bank, indicates that in the Caribbean, the sustained recovery of tourism, albeit at moderate rates and a significant increase in activity in the mining and extractive helped keep the development. Also projected that the Dominican economy will grow 4.6% in 2013 and 4.8% in 2014.

This week the Central Bank of Dominican Republic reported that in the first quarter GDP grew 3.8% despite an unfavorable international context, with the oil processing, mining, financial intermediation, the manufacture of beverages, tobacco and insurance fastest growing sectors.

Add the World Bank that the expected gradual recovery of the U.S. is good news for countries like Mexico, Costa Rica, El Salvador and Haiti, which have strong industrial links with the economy of that nation, which also stimulate tourism and remittances to Latin and the Caribbean.

Worldwide says that the flow of remittances to developing countries could be reduced by 5% or more, representing a fall of 3% or more in the PID of the countries most dependent on them.
Tourism, especially from the high income European countries would be affected with serious consequences for the countries of North Africa and the Caribbean island economies, he says.

Another factor that will influence the behavior ensures the economy in the region is the economic slowdown in East Asia especially China, for the large number of products exported to these markets.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           

TRADE
The activities showed an increase in the value added of 6.8% over the same period of 2011, which is mainly explained by an increase of 6.7% in imports marketable, plus growth of 2.3% and 3.3% in the agricultural production and manufacturing, respectively. On the other hand, sales of commercial establishments in supermarkets and textiles grew by 17.5% and 12.0% respectively.

Exports of textile manufactures showed a growth of 0.1% and other manufacturing industries by 10.3%, registering an increase of total exports of 7.8%. Among the other manufacturing industries highlights the growth of electrical products (20.4%), pharmaceuticals (18.4%), manfactura of snuff (10.8%) and medical and surgical equipment (10.3).